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Scenario 1. North Korea Nuclear & Ballistic Missile Program: You are a Defence Intelligence
Organisation (DIO) or Headquarters Joint Operations Centre (JOC), J2 (Intelligence
Directorate), Bungendore intelligence analyst and you have been directed to research,
analyse and deliver a comprehensive yet concise ‘Intelligence Estimate’ & one-page ‘Issue
Paper’ on the historical, current and projected situation in North Korea concerning its
Nuclear Weapons and Ballistic Missile programs. Your assigned mission is to provide an
intelligence assessment on this problem using an intelligence preparation of the operational
environment approach to support the development of potential future Australian national
courses of action (CoAs). You will need to assess North Korea’s Nuclear and Ballistic Missile
program capabilities and assess its intent to employ them: how, when and where — most
likely and most dangerous courses of action (COAs).
Scenario 2. PRC Maritime Territorial Ambitions in the South China Sea: You are a Defence
Intelligence Organisation (DIO) or Headquarters Joint Operations Centre (JOC), J2
(Intelligence Directorate), Bungendore intelligence analyst and you have been directed to
build a comprehensive yet concise ‘Intelligence Estimate’ & one-page ‘Issue Paper’ on the
historical, current and projected situation in the South China Sea involving expansive
People’s Republic of China (PRC) maritime territorial claims. Your assigned mission is to
provide an intelligence assessment on this problem using an intelligence preparation of the
operational environment approach to support the development of potential future
Australian national courses of action (CoAs). You will need to assess the PRC’s expansive
maritime territorial claims and supporting activities in the South China Sea, as well as
China’s future intentions, to include most likely and most dangerous potential courses of
action (COAs).

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